Hurricanes to Hit Atlantic Harder than Usual this Year?

In 2012, there were twice as many hurricanes as were widely predicted, but this year the forecast numbers are dramatically up, according to a recent USA Today article.

Since 1984, meteorologists Philip Klotzbach and William Gray at Colorado State University have been issuing seasonal hurricane forecasts, the first team to do so.

Last year they predicted 10 “named” storms and four hurricanes, but Mother Nature issued her own releases - 19 named storms and 10 hurricanes, including Hurricane Sandy, which rocked the East Coast last fall.

The first five named storms of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season will go by Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dorian and Erin. Based on 62 years of available meteorological data, the Atlantic experiences an average of 12 tropical storms (storms with sustained winds of at least 39 m.p.h.), seven of which become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher).

For the past three years, the Atlantic has incurred a total of 19 storms on average during hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30 in the Atlantic basin, which includes the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.

Klotzbach and Gray predict that of the nine forecasted hurricanes, four are likely to be severe - Category 3, 4 or 5 - with sustained winds of at least 111 mph.

USA Today research reveals that since 2000, the team has under-forecast the actual number of storms seven times, over-forecasted three times and been within two storms three times. Klotzbach and Grey will issue an updated forecast on June 3, so stay tuned for more details on a potentially hard-hitting storm season.